January 9, 2018January 10, 2018 by thezerahproject

Israeli Aircraft/Missile Systems Strike Syrian Targets

Hezbollah, Iran, Israel, Levant, Russia, Syria, US
Leave a comment

09JAN2018 – Situation:

Officials from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s military regime announced Tuesday that Israel had struck several military facilities within the al-Qutayfah region near Damascus.[1] [2] [3]

According to Syrian state media, at approximately 02:40 a.m. local time (0040 GMT) Israeli jets fired at targets within the al-Qutaifa area near Damascus while inside Lebanese airspace.[4] Upon completion of this airstrike, Israeli forces proceeded to fire ground-launched rockets from the Israeli-held Golan Heights; only to finish with a final jet salvo of four rockets.[5]

Syrian regime officials stated that the Syrian Arab Air Defense Force was able to strike one of the Israeli aircraft, downed all missiles launched from the Golan Heights, and brought down one of the final four rockets launched from Israeli jets.[6] [7] However, these claims remain unfounded at this time.

Disposition of Syrian Arab Air Defense Force Surface to Air Missile Sites. Credit: Analyst

The attack reaffirms Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledge in 2016 that “(sic) Israel is determined to prevent Iran from establishing itself militarily in Syria, on the ground, in the air or at sea.”[8] Further, following reports of Tuesday’s strike, Netanyahu stated “we have a longstanding policy to prevent the transfer of game-changing weapons to Hezbollah in Syrian Territory. This policy has not changed. We back it up, if necessary, with action.”[9] The strike near Damascus early Tuesday morning is likely the physical manifestation of this policy.

Israeli officials did not comment on the strike.

Why is this important?

Israel has long asserted that Iran, the Jewish state’s longtime enemy, has utilized the chaos and fluidity of the Syrian Civil War to advance Iranian presence within Syria.[10] More specifically, to increase the capabilities and operations of Iranian backed Lebanese militant group-Hezbollah. A terror organization that Israel deems a significant threat to its interests. Israel has been negotiating with the United States and Russian, the main powerhouses in Syria, to remove Hezbollah and other foreign fighters from regions close to the Israeli border.[11] However, it is unknown if any action has been taken regarding this delegation.

Sources:

[1] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israel-syria-fire-attack-fighter-jets-ground-missiles-idf-assad-rockets-latest-a8149031.html

[2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-israel/syria-says-israel-hits-its-territory-with-jets-missiles-idUSKBN1EY0JM

[3] http://www.businessinsider.com/syria-hit-by-jets-and-missiles-after-israel-strikes-hezbollah-2018-1

[4] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-israel/syria-says-israel-hits-its-territory-with-jets-missiles-idUSKBN1EY0JM

[5] http://www.businessinsider.com/syria-hit-by-jets-and-missiles-after-israel-strikes-hezbollah-2018-1

[6] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israel-syria-fire-attack-fighter-jets-ground-missiles-idf-assad-rockets-latest-a8149031.html

[7] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-israel/syria-says-israel-hits-its-territory-with-jets-missiles-idUSKBN1EY0JM

[8] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-war-latest-israel-russia-cooperation-iran-hezbollah-assad-military-support-a7412266.html

[9] https://www.rt.com/news/415328-israel-attack-syria-targets/

[10] https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/jan/9/israeli-jets-and-rockets-hit-syria-overnight-syria/

[11] http://www.businessinsider.com/syria-hit-by-jets-and-missiles-after-israel-strikes-hezbollah-2018-1

January 1, 2018January 10, 2018 by thezerahproject

Terror Revealed: Approximately 115 Civilians Discovered in Islamic State Mass Grave in Syria

01JAN2017-Situation

Two mass graves containing civilians and Syrian Regime fighters were discovered around 29DEC2017, in Raqqa, Syria; the former Islamic State (IS) capital.[1] The two mass graves were found by civilians returning to the village of Wawi, located north of the city of Raqqa[2]; who in turn, alerted Syrian military forces according to Syria’s state SANA agency.[3]

Fig-1-Map-of-Syria-and-the-location-of-Neolithic-sites-discussed-in-the-text

Location of Raqqa, Syria; approximate location of IS Mass Grave Site found around 29DEC2017. Credit: ResearchGate

Syrian Civil Defense stated that excavation and recovery operations were estimated to last several days “due to the huge area of the two mass graves”.[5] Thus far, approximately 115 bodies have been exhumed from the two mass graves.[6] It remains unclear as to where the individuals located within the graves were executed, aside from being somewhere within IS held territory.[7]

Video: Excavations of Bodies from Mass Graves north of Raqqa

This is not the first IS mass grave/execution site to have been discovered by opposition forces. Previously, in November 2017, the remains of approximately 400 people where found within a mass grave near an airbase on the outskirts of Hawija, Iraq.[8] In total, an approximate 72 IS mass grave sites have been discovered by US-backed forces in both Iraq and Syria.[9] These graves often contain both women and children, entire tribes, and those opposing IS rule.[10]

Sources:

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/30/syria-two-mass-graves-found-in-raqqa-state-media-reports

[2] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-31/mass-graves-found-in-syria-filled-with-islamic-state-victims/9295140

[3] https://www.rt.com/news/414665-raqqa-mass-graves-civilians/

[4] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-31/mass-graves-found-in-syria-filled-with-islamic-state-victims/9295140

[5] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/30/syria-two-mass-graves-found-in-raqqa-state-media-reports

[6] https://www.rt.com/news/414665-raqqa-mass-graves-civilians/

[7] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/30/syria-two-mass-graves-found-in-raqqa-state-media-reports

[8] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-mass-graves-iraq-town-recapture-hawija-rawa-a8052386.html

[9] Ibid

[10] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/30/up-to-15000-bodies-may-be-buried-in-mass-graves-in-syria-and-iraq-survey

November 13, 2017November 14, 2017 by thezerahproject

Airstrike in Syrian “De-Escalation Zone” Kills Many

Islamic State, Levant, Russia, Syria, Turkey, US
Leave a comment

***WARNING: CONTAINS GRAPHIC IMAGES***

13NOV2017-Situation:

Today, multiple sources including The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a war monitoring group based in Britian stated that an airstrike killed approximately 29-43 people.[1][2] The strike occurred in the market square of al-Atareb; a town located within the Aleppo province in western Syria.[3]

It is not immediately clear whether the attack on the Syrian rebel held town was carried out by Russian or Syrian warplanes. However, what is clear is that the market was hit approximately three times.[4] A journalist for the pro-opposition site Zaman Al Wasl, Ahmed Primo, tweeted that three Russian warplanes had fired missiles at the market.[5] The market contained over 100 shops, thus, civilian casualties span both men, women, and children.[6]

Image of Ahmed Primo’s tweet on social media site Twitter. Credit: Twitter

Al-Atareb is located in part of a “de-escalation zone” that was established earlier this year between Russia, Iran, and Turkey backed rebels to reduce violence within the region.[7] However, this agreement excludes groups such as the Islamic State and Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham.[8] De-escalations zones such as the one hit today, are areas where fighting between both government and rebel forces is halted, including airstrikes, for a 6 month period.[9]

Why is this important?

It remains unclear as to if members of either the Islamic State or Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham were operating within al-Atareb or, if the agreement had reached its term limit of 6 months. Regardless, the airstrike remains interesting. Especially since Russia has been engaging in peace talks with Turkey and Iran.[10]

***NOTE: STORY IS BREAKING, INFORMATION WILL BE RELEASED AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE***

Sources:

[1] http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/air-raids-kill-43-civilians-syria-aleppo-171113184601064.html

[2] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41968118

[3] http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-aleppo/air-strikes-kill-29-in-market-in-northern-syria-monitoring-group-idUSKBN1DD2GO

[4] http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/air-raids-kill-43-civilians-syria-aleppo-171113184601064.html

[5] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41968118

[6] http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/air-raids-kill-43-civilians-syria-aleppo-171113184601064.html

[7] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41968118

[8] http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/air-raids-kill-43-civilians-syria-aleppo-171113184601064.html

[9] Ibid

[10] https://en.radiofarda.com/a/syria-negotiations-israel-to-act-if-needed/28851973.html

November 6, 2017January 10, 2018 by thezerahproject

Mattis Backs UN Process to End Syrian Conflict

Asia, Europe, Islamic State, Israel, Levant, North America, Russia, Syria, US
Leave a comment

US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis at a news conference in New Delhi, India September 26, 2017. Credit: REUTERS/Adnan Abidi

06NOV2017 – Situation

Monday, US Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis stated that he would back diplomatic efforts in order to end the Syrian civil war; a conflict that has claimed the lives of thousands over nearly a seven year period.[1] This announcement comes as the US and its partners look beyond the defeat of the Islamic State (IS) in Syria.[2]

According to intelligence reports cited by Mattis, “the whole bottom of IS is dropping out.”[3] As such, a UN backed Geneva effort is underway to end the conflict diplomatically. An effort that runs parallel to similar Russian and Iranian led processes aimed at reaching diplomatic solutions to the Syrian conflict.[4] Mattis stated: “Secretary [of State Rex] Tillerson engaged strongly with [U.N. Special Envoy for Syria] Staffan de Mistura about how do we move what has been going on in [Russian-supported Syrian peace talks in Kazakhstan’s capital city of] Astana over to Geneva where we can actually get the U.N. engaged on the way forward.”[5]

Why is this important?

The chaos caused by the Syrian civil war as well as IS, has left a significant power vacuum. This vacuum has afforded an opportunity for various states such as: Russia, Iran, China, North Korea, Israel, and United States to step in and exercises certain levels of influence within Syria. The varying degrees of influence has caused the conflict to morph away from the original local/regional struggle into a larger US-Russia proxy war, encompassing various state and non-state actors. Therefore, with the looming defeat of IS, an entity that has largely served as a buffer between the two geopolitical giants, the importance of a diplomatic end to the conflict has become even more apparent.

Sources:

[1] http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-usa-syria/mattis-backs-geneva-process-on-syrian-conflict-idUSKBN1D61AW

[2] http://www.france24.com/en/20171106-mattis-looks-diplomacy-crumbles-syria

[3] Ibid

[4] Ibid

[5] http://theweek.com/speedreads/735592/mattis-backs-diplomacy-end-6-years-fighting-syria

October 30, 2017October 30, 2017 by thezerahproject

Brief Overview of the Syrian Arab Air Force

Levant, Russia, Syria
Leave a comment

Discussion:

Since combat operations began in 2011, the high operational tempo, unsustainable logistics, and the fluidity of the front lines have caused the Syrian Arab Air Force (SAAF) to sustain heavy losses to its strike/fighter aircraft. Currently, the type of strike/fighter aircraft IHS Janes estimates to be remaining within the SAAF order of battle include the: L-39Z Albatros, MiG-25RB, MiG-23MF/ML, and SU-24 Fencer D.[i]

SAAF L-39Z Albatros conducting strike mission in Syria.
Photo Credit: SaS1946

L-39Z Albatros:

A two-seater aircraft equipped with a AI-25TL turbofan engine and designed for training in all-weather, day/night conditions.[ii] The aircraft is equipped with two outboard and two inboard pylons which can be equipped with bombs, missiles, or machinegun armaments.[iii] Although primarily used as a light trainer, the SAAF has been using the aircraft as a ground attack platform since the onset of the conflict in 2011.[iv] The less technical skill required to operate the aircraft, low maintenance cost, and performance in low altitude/low-speed attack roles make the L-39Z well suited for SAAF operations against both rebel and terrorist groups.[v] These aircraft are primarily located at Kuweires Airbase.[vi]

MiG-25 Foxbat located at Tiyas Airbase
Photo Credit: Flying Tigers

MiG-25RB Foxbat:

Bombing and large area attack variant, the MiG-25RB Foxbat is an all-weather, day/night interceptor aircraft capable of operating in dense electronic warfare environments.[vii] Equipped with two R-15B-300 single shaft turbojets, and four underwing pylons capable of employing various munitions.[viii] SAAF MiG-25RB Foxbat’s are located at Tiyas Airbase. It is unknown as to how many aircraft remain operational and in use by the SAAF.[ix]

MiG-23 Flogger conducting missions over Idib, Syria
Photo Credit: The Aviationist

MiG-23ML Flogger:

A lightweight version of the original variable-wing MiG-23 Flogger fighter/interceptor aircraft, the ML variant has enhanced maneuverability and “g” limit, and a more powerful R-35-300 engine.[x] Capable of employing a 23mm cannon as well as various bombs and air-to-air missiles.[xi] Currently, it is unknown as to how many MiG-23ML Flogger aircraft remain within SAAF inventory or where these aircraft are located.

SAAF SU-24 Fencer D on bombing mission in Syria
Photo Credit: Oryx Blog

SU-24 Fencer D:

An all-weather, variable-wing, long range, strike/fighter aircraft designed for low altitude penetration of enemy lines. Capable of employing various munitions including guided ordinance.[xii] The SU-24 Fencer D has been widely used in Syria. Russian air force (VKO) has deployed various SU-24 Fencer D aircraft to Syria in support of Russian backed operations. In 2016, AMN news agency reported that the Russia government was going to supply the SAAF with additional SU-24 aircraft.[xiii] In 2012, The Aviationist reported, from undisclosed sources that within the SAAF order of battle there were approximately 20 SU-24 Fencer D aircraft stationed at Tiyas Air Base with squadron 819.[xiv]

Syrian SU-22 Fitter conducting an airstrike at an unknown location in Syria.
Photo Credit: Baladi

SU-22 Fitter:

The export version of the SU-17, the SU-22 is a strike/fighter, swing-wing aircraft capable of employing multiple munitions.[xv] This airframe has been widely used in Syria for strike operations. Most recently, this aircraft was blamed for delivering the chemical attack on the city of Khan Sheikhoun, in northern Syria.[xvi] According to HIS Jane’s, the Syrian Air Force has approximately 40 SU-22 Fitter aircraft within the order of battle.[xvii] However, on 7 April, 2017, the US launched approximately 60 BGM-109 Tomahawk missiles from two US Navy destroyers against Syrian Air Base Shayrat; the primary location of Syria’s SU-22’s.[xviii][xix] Thus, it remains unknown as to how many of these aircraft survived the US strike.

Source:

[i] https://janes.ihs.com/Janes/Display/1319127 (H)

[ii] http://server.3rd-wing.net/public/Manuels%20DCS/DCS_L-39_Flight_Manual_EN.pdf (H)

[iii] Ibid

[iv] https://warontherocks.com/2016/11/the-stage-is-set-for-an-escalation-the-meaning-of-syrias-attack-on-turkish- forces/ (L)

[v] Ibid

[vi] Ibid

[vii] http://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/mig25/ (M)

[viii] Ibid

[ix] http://www.urbanghostsmedia.com/2015/11/abandoned-mig-25-foxbats-tiyas-airbase-t4-syria/ (L)

[x] http://www.military-today.com/aircraft/mikoyan_mig_23_flogger.htm (L)

[xi] Ibid

[xii] http://nationalinterest.org/blog/what-russias-enemies-syria-should-fear-the-su-24-fencer-13996 (L)

[xiii] http://rbth.com/news/2016/07/27/syrian-air-force-to-get-russian-su-24m2-frontline-bombers_615587 (L)

[xiv] https://theaviationist.com/2012/11/16/fencer-syria/ (M)

[xv] http://www.airvectors.net/avsu17_2.html#m4

[xvi] http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/08/middleeast/syria-strikes-russia-donald-trump/

[xvii] https://janes.ihs.com/Janes/Display/1766493

[xviii] http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2017/04/breaking-us-fires-dozens-cruise-missiles-syrian-airbase/136817/?oref=d-river

[xix] https://janes.ihs.com/Janes/Display/1766493

October 23, 2017January 10, 2018 by thezerahproject

Islamic State Kills Dozens in Syrian Village

23OCT2017 – Situation:

Approximately 60-130 civilians are suspected of being killed by Islamic State (IS) militants within the central Syrian town of al-Qaryatain according to a the Britain based organization: Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.[1] Qaryatain is located roughly 100 km (60 miles) West of the city of Palmyra, in central Syria.[2] The bodies of the deceased were discovered within the village following a three-week battle between IS and Syrian Regime forces after it had been recaptured by IS in a surprise attack weeks prior.[3]

_98441705_iraq_syria_control_23_10_2017_640_16x9_map-nc

al-Qaryatain is located approximately 100 km (60 mi) West of Palmyra. Credit: IHS Janes

Most of the bodies were either shot or stabbed multiple times, often found lying in the streets. Left where IS militants had conducted executions as they retreated from governmental forces.[4] It appears that the victims were targeted by IS militants as being suspected “’regime militants’”;[5] A large portion of them being executed in the last two days of IS control.[6]According to an unnamed resident of Qaryatain, “These are people who don’t know God, they don’t know anything. They killed children and women with knives, they beat women, broke their arms.”[7] Of the total number killed, approximately 35 bodies were found to have been shot and then dumped into a shaft.[8]

Other residents of the town were killed by Syrian Regime forces for suspected collusion with IS.[9] The total number of victims killed by governmental forces within the town according to the Syrian Observatory stands at approximately 12.[10]

It remains unknown as to how IS militants succeeded in retaking the town to begin with. However, it is speculated by the Syrian Observatory that at least some of the militants were sleeper cells, who knew the citizens of the town intimately.[11] A tactic that IS has been observed using in past situations.[12]

Sources:

[1] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/islamic-states-executed-116-in-syria-town-revenge-campaign-monitor/articleshow/61183346.cms

[2]http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41720311

[3] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2017/10/23/dozens-bodies-found-syria-massacre-after-government-reclaims-town-islamic-state/789746001/

[4] http://www.kansascity.com/news/nation-world/article180351516.html

[5] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41720311

[6] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/islamic-states-executed-116-in-syria-town-revenge-campaign-monitor/articleshow/61183346.cms

[7] http://www.kansascity.com/news/nation-world/article180351516.html

[8] Ibid

[9] Ibid

[10] Ibid

[11] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/islamic-states-executed-116-in-syria-town-revenge-campaign-monitor/articleshow/61183346.cms

[12] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-al-qaryatayn-syria-attack-kills-civilians-raqqa-islamic-state-army-revenge-a8014746.html

October 16, 2017January 10, 2018 by thezerahproject

Round Two: Israel Strikes Syrian Air Defense Emplacement

Israel, Levant, Russia, Syria
Leave a comment

Israeli jet conducting maneuvers. Credit: © Baz Ratner / Reuters

16OCT2017 – Situation:

As of earlier this morning, the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) announced that it fired upon and destroyed a Syrian anti-air battery approximately 50 kilometers (30 miles) from Damascus.[1] The airstrike occurred after a Syrian SA-5 Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) battery fired upon Israeli aircraft which, according to Israeli military spokesman Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus[2], were on a “reconnaissance mission”[3] over Lebanon.[4]

Israeli Defense Force (IDF) announcing Monday’s incident via Twitter. Credit: IDF Twitter

After Israeli aircraft destroyed the Syrian battery with four bombs, the event was reported to Russia as part of an air coordination agreement between the two states.[5] In a video statement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the incident was “an attempt to harm our ((Israeli)) aircraft” and thus, “unacceptable. . . the air force acted quickly and destroyed what it needed to destroy.”[6] [7] Moreover, Lt. Col Conricus commented that Israel had no interest in further escalating the situation; but, would nevertheless “preserve our ability to act and thwart.”[8]

However, in a statement made by President Bashar al-Assad’s Government Forces: “The aircraft of Israel’s Air Force violated [Syria’s] airspace near the border with Lebanon in the Baalbek area at 08:51 a.m. local time (05:51 GMT)… One of the planes was hit, which forced the aircraft to leave.”[9] Something the IDF has denied, stating all Israeli aircraft involved in the incident returned safely. [10]

**It remains unknown if any Syrian Arab Air Defense Force members died in the strike.[11]**

Discussion:

This is not the first time Israeli aircraft have been subjected to Syria’s air defense systems. In March of this year, Israeli aircraft were fired upon by Syrian air defense emplacements while participating in a strike against a weapons convoy bound for Lebanese terror group Hezbollah. [12] The attack caused Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman to threaten the destruction of any Syrian air defense batteries “without the slightest hesitation” if Israeli aircraft were fired upon in the future.

Following Monday’s incident, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu was received in Tel Aviv prior to a meeting with senior Israeli officials.[13] Russia, a long-term and heavily invested ally with Syria, has established a special communication system with Israel designed to reduce friction between the two states.[14] It remains unknown how Monday’s event will influence his visit.

Sources:

[1] http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israeli-military-strikes-anti-aircraft-battery-syria-50504156

[2] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/israeli-military-strikes-anti-aircraft-battery-in-syria/2017/10/16/d90ecc56-b259-11e7-9b93-b97043e57a22_story.html?utm_term=.ffb821136352

[3] Ibid

[4] https://www.rt.com/news/406818-israeli-warplanes-hit-syria-battery/

[5] Ibid

[6] Ibid

[7] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/israeli-military-strikes-anti-aircraft-battery-in-syria/2017/10/16/d90ecc56-b259-11e7-9b93-b97043e57a22_story.html?utm_term=.ffb821136352

[8] Ibid

[9] https://www.rt.com/news/406818-israeli-warplanes-hit-syria-battery/

[10] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/16/israeli-jets-attack-anti-aircraft-battery-in-syria-in-retaliatory-strike

[11] http://www.france24.com/en/20171016-israel-military-carries-out-strike-syrian-anti-aircraft-battery

[12] http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israeli-military-strikes-anti-aircraft-battery-syria-50504156

[13] Ibid

[14] http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israeli-military-strikes-anti-aircraft-battery-syria-50504156

October 2, 2017October 26, 2017 by thezerahproject

Second Russian S-400 Battery Confirmed in Syria

Europe, Levant, North America, Syria
1 Comment

02OCT2017 – Situation:

New evidence has emerged indicating that a second Russian S-400 Surface-to-Air missile system has been deployed to Syria. The deployment of this system significantly bolsters Russia’s air defense capabilities within the region.[1] According to IHS Jane’s, the S-400 was deployed in the mountainous terrain northwest of Masyaf, between the period of April to July 2017 (See Figure 1).[2]

Figure 1: Site of second Russian S-400 battery northwest of Masyaf. Credit: IHS Janes

Brief Overview Russia’s S-400 Surface-to-Air System:

Developed by Russian Almaz Antei Design Bureau, the S-400 air defense system represents the latest generation of Russia’s anti-air capabilities. With a mobile deployment time of only five minutes; this system is capable of tracking and engaging up to 300 targets simultaneously from a max engagement range of 25 kilometers.[3] Currently, Russia possess 10 S-400 systems, with two of these being forwardly deployed to Syria.[4]

Figure 2: S-400 System capabilities and associated radar systems. Credit: Sputnik News

Why is this Important?

The presence of a second highly sophisticated S-400 system in Syria only bolsters Russia’s projection of air power. At a time when discord between Russia and US-led coalition forces has increased (following the death of Russian Lt. General Valery Asapov); the confirmed presence of a second system complicates relations further. Moreover, with an official linkage between both Russian and Syrian air defenses, creating a “unified integrated air defense system”; the presence of a second battery expands the Syrian regime’s aerial denial capabilities as well.

Yet, US and coalition forces do not appear to be shifting strategy any time soon. In an interview with the Air Force Times, Lt. Gen. Charles Brown Jr, head of US Air Force Central Command stated (in regards to a second S-400 system in Syria): “It does complicate things a little bit, and we’ll put some thought to it, but we still have a job to do here, and we’re going to continue to do that job – to defeat Daesh [the Islamic State].”[5]

However, US-led coalition forces could be facing more problems. On 29SEPT2017, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, Turkey. The purpose of their meeting was to discuss ongoing situation in Syria.[6] Part of this discussion involved the possible selling of Russian S-400 systems to Turkey; A topic on which Putin commented “(Russia) is ready for this”.[7] Nevertheless, no agreement between Russia and Turkey on the missile systems has been reached. Thus, it remains unclear as to if/when, the number of systems, and how long this potential arms agreement between Russia and Turkey will last.

Figure 3: President Vladimir Putin met with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey in Ankara on 29SEPT2017. Credit: Arab News

What is apparent however, is that relations between Russia and the US are likely to continue to worsen. Especially if an agreement is made in regards to Turkey’s acquisition of Russian S-400 systems.

Sources:

[1] http://www.janes.com/article/74500/second-russian-s-400-in-syria-confirmed

[2] Ibid

[3] https://sputniknews.com/infographics/201509261027578863/

[4] https://janes.ihs.com/Janes/Display/jwafa228-cis#S-400

[5] https://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-deploys-s-400-missile-battery-in-syria-state-media-says/

[6] https://www.rt.com/news/404895-putin-erdogan-syria-visit/

[7] https://www.timesofisrael.com/putin-says-hes-ready-to-sell-s-400-anti-aircraft-system-to-turkey/

September 25, 2017October 26, 2017 by thezerahproject

Death of a General Sparks Increased Tensions Amid Global Hegemons

Islamic State, Levant, Russia, Syria, US
1 Comment

Lt. General Valery Asapov killed by an Islamic State Mortar Attack. Photo Credit: Daily Mail

25SEPT2017 – Situation:

Over the last 24 hours, the proxy war between the US and Russia in Syria has reached new heights. Yesterday, 24SEPT2017, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced that one of its top military advisors in Syria had been killed as a result of an apparent Islamic State (IS) mortar attack.[i] Lt. General Valery Asapov “was at a command post of Syrian troops, assisting the Syrian commanders in the operation for the liberation of the city of Deir Ez-Zor” when he was fatally wounded from shrapnel according to Russian state news agency Tass.[ii]

Russian Special Forces Operating in Syria’s eastern city of Deir Ez-Zor. Photo Credit: Dominique Derda/AFP/Getty

However, in the eyes of Moscow, the death of Asapov had little to do with IS, and more to do with US policy. According to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryaback, “The death of the Russian commander is the price paid with blood for the hypocrisy of American policy in Syria.”[iii] Ryaback’s statement is based off concerns in Moscow that despite claims from Washington in favor of fighting IS, no action has been taken on ground.[iv] “The American side declares that it is interested in the elimination of IS … but some of its actions show it is doing the opposite and that some political and geopolitical goals are more important for Washington” Ryabkov said.[v] Russian officials have also cited a series of satellite imagery allegedly depicting US special forces located north of Deir Ez-Zor, facing very little militant resistance.[vi] Despite these allegations, US-led coalition forces have continued bombing IS positions throughout Syria in support of the Syrian Democratic Forces’ (SDF) operations against IS. A statement released by Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve emphasized that “The allegations (by Russia) are false. For operational security, we do not comment on ongoing operations or the current positions of Coalition personnel and our partner forces.”[ix][vii] Yet, Moscow still maintains the premise that US policy is “two-faced”; and as a result, the Islamic State remains strong.[viii]

It is important to note:

A high-level communication channel exists between US/Russia forces in Syria.[x] This channel serves to mitigate any potential increase in tensions amid the two global hegemons, which, as demonstrated, still remains strained.[xi]

Sources:

[i] http://www.newsweek.com/russia-blames-us-hypocrisy-isis-murder-top-moscow-general-syria-670448

[ii] Ibid

[iii] https://www.rt.com/news/404510-syria-russia-general-usa/

[iv] Ibid

[v] http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-casualtie/moscow-blames-two-faced-u-s-policy-for-russian-generals-syria-death-ria-idUSKCN1C01W6?il=0

[vi] https://www.rt.com/news/404510-syria-russia-general-usa/

[vii] http://www.newsweek.com/russia-blames-us-hypocrisy-isis-murder-top-moscow-general-syria-670448

[viii] Ibid

[ix] https://www.rt.com/news/404510-syria-russia-general-usa/

[x] http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/21/united-states-russia-syria-communication-lines-242979

[xi] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/us-allies-accuse-russia-of-strikes-in-eastern-syria/2017/09/25/6bcbbab0-a1ff-11e7-b573-8ec86cdfe1ed_story.html?utm_term=.da45741a5864

September 18, 2017October 26, 2017 by thezerahproject

Russia Denies Accusations of Attacking US-Backed Forces in Syria

Europe, Levant, North Africa, Syria
Leave a comment

18SEPT2017 – Situation:

Yesterday, Russia’s Defense Ministry denied accusations from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that it had bombed the US-backed Kurdish and Arab alliance fighters in Syria on 16SEPT2017.[1] The alleged attack, occurred in the city of Deir al-Zour, located in eastern Syria[2] during a Russian-backed Syrian government offensive into the northeastern province of Deir Az Zor.[3] According to the SDF “Our forces east of the Euphrates River were targeted by Russian and Syrian regime warplanes.”[4] Resulting in the wounding of six fighters within the US-backed group.[5] This marks the first time the SDF has stated that they had been hit by Russian forces.[6] SDF fighters have been advancing against IS held positions along the east bank of the Euphrates. While, Syrian government forces have been advancing along the western flank.[7]

_97674550_iraq_syria_control_04_09_2017_624_16x9_map.png

Territorial holdings by various government and non-government forces throughout Syria and Iraq as of 04SEPT2017. Credit: IHS Conflict Monitor

According to Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov, Russian aircraft had only carried out pinpointed strikes against IS held positions in Deir al-Zour province.[8] Further he stated that the attack was “not possible. Why would we bomb them?”[9] Konashenkov noted that the Russian military had given the US an advanced notice before the strike.[10] “To avoid unnecessary escalation, the commanders of Russian forces in Syria used an existing communications channel to inform our American partners in good time” said Konashenkov. [11] Moreover, he stated that there was no evidence to substantiate the accusations leveled against Russia.[12]

In a statement made by Pentagon officials, Russia knowingly attacked the US-backed SDF. Asserting, Russian munitions impacted a location known to the Russians to contain Syrian Democratic Forces and coalition advisers”.[13] It is important to note that an approximate 900 US troops are embedded with partner forces in Syria, providing artillery and close air support.[14] Although the incident wounded six SDF fighters, no coalition forces were harmed.