Death of a General Sparks Increased Tensions Amid Global Hegemons

Lt. General Valery Asapov killed by an Islamic State Mortar Attack. Photo Credit: Daily Mail

25SEPT2017 – Situation:

Over the last 24 hours, the proxy war between the US and Russia in Syria has reached new heights. Yesterday, 24SEPT2017, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced that one of its top military advisors in Syria had been killed as a result of an apparent Islamic State (IS) mortar attack.[i] Lt. General Valery Asapov “was at a command post of Syrian troops, assisting the Syrian commanders in the operation for the liberation of the city of Deir Ez-Zor” when he was fatally wounded from shrapnel according to Russian state news agency Tass.[ii]

Russian Special Forces Operating in Syria’s eastern city of Deir Ez-Zor. Photo Credit: Dominique Derda/AFP/Getty

However, in the eyes of Moscow, the death of Asapov had little to do with IS, and more to do with US policy. According to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryaback, “The death of the Russian commander is the price paid with blood for the hypocrisy of American policy in Syria.”[iii] Ryaback’s  statement is based off concerns in Moscow that despite claims from Washington in favor of fighting IS, no action has been taken on ground.[iv] “The American side declares that it is interested in the elimination of IS … but some of its actions show it is doing the opposite and that some political and geopolitical goals are more important for Washington” Ryabkov said.[v] Russian officials have also cited a series of satellite imagery allegedly depicting US special forces located north of Deir Ez-Zor, facing very little militant resistance.[vi] Despite these allegations, US-led coalition forces have continued bombing IS positions throughout Syria in support of the Syrian Democratic Forces’ (SDF) operations against IS. A statement released by Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve emphasized that “The allegations (by Russia) are false. For operational security, we do not comment on ongoing operations or the current positions of Coalition personnel and our partner forces.”[ix][vii] Yet, Moscow still maintains the premise that US policy is “two-faced”; and as a result, the Islamic State remains strong.[viii]

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It is important to note:

A high-level communication channel exists between US/Russia forces in Syria.[x] This channel serves to mitigate any potential increase in tensions amid the two global hegemons, which, as demonstrated, still remains strained.[xi]

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Sources:

[i] http://www.newsweek.com/russia-blames-us-hypocrisy-isis-murder-top-moscow-general-syria-670448

[ii] Ibid

[iii] https://www.rt.com/news/404510-syria-russia-general-usa/

[iv] Ibid

[v] http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-casualtie/moscow-blames-two-faced-u-s-policy-for-russian-generals-syria-death-ria-idUSKCN1C01W6?il=0

[vi] https://www.rt.com/news/404510-syria-russia-general-usa/

[vii] http://www.newsweek.com/russia-blames-us-hypocrisy-isis-murder-top-moscow-general-syria-670448

[viii] Ibid

[ix] https://www.rt.com/news/404510-syria-russia-general-usa/

[x] http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/21/united-states-russia-syria-communication-lines-242979

[xi] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/us-allies-accuse-russia-of-strikes-in-eastern-syria/2017/09/25/6bcbbab0-a1ff-11e7-b573-8ec86cdfe1ed_story.html?utm_term=.da45741a5864

Russia Denies Accusations of Attacking US-Backed Forces in Syria

18SEPT2017 – Situation:

Yesterday, Russia’s Defense Ministry denied accusations from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that it had bombed the US-backed Kurdish and Arab alliance fighters in Syria on 16SEPT2017.[1] The alleged attack, occurred in the city of Deir al-Zour, located in eastern Syria[2] during a Russian-backed Syrian government offensive into the northeastern province of Deir Az Zor.[3] According to the SDF “Our forces east of the Euphrates River were targeted by Russian and Syrian regime warplanes.”[4] Resulting in the wounding of six fighters within the US-backed group.[5] This marks the first time the SDF has stated that they had been hit by Russian forces.[6] SDF fighters have been advancing against IS held positions along the east bank of the Euphrates. While, Syrian government forces have been advancing along the western flank.[7]

Territorial holdings by various government and non-government forces throughout Syria and Iraq as of 04SEPT2017. Credit: IHS Conflict Monitor

According to Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov, Russian aircraft had only carried out pinpointed strikes against IS held positions in Deir al-Zour province.[8] Further he stated that the attack was “not possible. Why would we bomb them?”[9] Konashenkov noted that the Russian military had given the US an advanced notice before the strike.[10] “To avoid unnecessary escalation, the commanders of Russian forces in Syria used an existing communications channel to inform our American partners in good time” said Konashenkov. [11] Moreover, he stated that there was no evidence to substantiate the accusations leveled against Russia.[12]

In a statement made by Pentagon officials, Russia knowingly attacked the US-backed SDF. Asserting, Russian munitions impacted a location known to the Russians to contain Syrian Democratic Forces and coalition advisers”.[13] It is important to note that an approximate 900 US troops are embedded with partner forces in Syria, providing artillery and close air support.[14]  Although the incident wounded six SDF fighters, no coalition forces were harmed.

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Sources:

[1] http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/russia-denies-bombing-backed-sdf-troops-170917120912438.html

[2] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41299253

[3] http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/russia-denies-bombing-backed-sdf-troops-170917120912438.html

[4] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41299253

[5] http://www.independent.ie/world-news/russia-denies-claim-of-airstrike-on-usbacked-syrian-force-36140496.html

[6] http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/us-backed-force-says-hit-russia-government-strikes-east-syria-1490296164

[7] http://www.independent.ie/world-news/russia-denies-claim-of-airstrike-on-usbacked-syrian-force-36140496.html

[8] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41299253

[9] http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/us-backed-force-says-hit-russia-government-strikes-east-syria-1490296164

[10] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41299253

[11] Ibid

[12] http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/russia-denies-bombing-backed-sdf-troops-170917120912438.html

[13] http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/pentagon-russia-knowingly-hit-backed-sdf-syria-170916183746755.html

[14] http://www.independent.ie/world-news/russia-denies-claim-of-airstrike-on-usbacked-syrian-force-36140496.html

 

Satellite Imagery Indicates Likely Iranian Missile Factory in Syria

Figure 1: Benjamin Netanyahu expresses concern over suspected Iranian missile facilities in Syria during meeting with UN secretary general, António Guterres. Photograph: Heidi Levine / POOL/EPA

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11SEPT2017 – Situation:

On August 25, 2017, Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu accused Iran of “turning Syria into a base of military entrenchment as part of its declared goal to eradicate Israel” during a meeting with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres.[1] This meeting followed the release of satellite imagery by the Israeli based company, ImageSat International. [2]  Which, appeared to confirm a June 28, 2017 report done by a Syrian pro-opposition website[3]—zamanalwsl.net.[4]

Within this report, the pro-opposition site detailed a recent visit by Syrian president Bashar Al Assad to a new facility; theorized by zamanalwsl.net as well as Israel, to have been built for the development and manufacturing of long-range missiles under the direction of Iran.[5] Further, the pro-opposition site stated that “reliable sources knowledgeable about the regime’s ‘scientific research’ activities revealed that Assad’s open and documented visits to the homes of his supporters within the Hama area were merely used to cover his secret visit to the facility.”[6] As for ImageSat International, the company stated that “the facility in Wadi, Juhannam, near the Mediterranean coastal town of Baniyas, bore a close resemblance to a missile factory near Tehran.”[7]

Historically, Israel has been quick to point out Tehran’s increasing role within the region. In fact, this is not the first time an Israeli source has reported on Iranian missile sites in Syria. Within the first weeks of August 2017, images from Israel’s Eros B satellite were broadcast by the Israeli media. Citing that the facilities within the images were Iranian missile storage sites[8] (see Figure 2).[9] Moreover, a report by The Syrian Observatory on Human Rights, a United Kingdom based monitoring group, seemed to validate Israel’s assessment when it stated that “a military storage camp next to the research center near Masyaf was used to store surface-to-surface rockets and that personnel from Iran and Hezbollah had been seen there more than once.”[10]

Figure 2: Image depicting missile storage facility in Masyaf, Syria. Credit: Haaretz

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Why is this important?

According to Israeli policy, the acquisition of “advanced weaponry” by Hezbollah is a critical threat to national security.[11] Thus, any weaponry supplied to Hezbollah, particularly from Iran (Israel’s historic enemy), is viewed as inexcusable. As such, measures must be taken to mitigate this viable threat.[12] This includes conducting airstrikes within Syria.

Over the last week, Syrian officials have accused Israel of bombing military sites linked to the production of chemical weapons, as well as missiles bound for the Hezbollah militant group.[13] These strikes are something the Syrian government warned would cause “serious repercussions . . .on the security and stability of the region.”[14] Typically, such threats from Syria have been ignored by Israeli officials. However, with the recent announcement of an official linkage between both Syrian and Russian Anti-Air Defense Systems, it remains unclear as to how Israel will precede.

It is important to note that during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin last month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that “Israel was prepared to act alone to curb Iranian expansion in Syria.”[15] In the past, Netanyahu has opposed a US-Russian cease-fire in southern Syria because it empowered Iran.[16] Which, according to Israeli policy, is unacceptable.

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Sources:

[1] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41074830

[2] Ibid

[3] Ibid

[4] https://www.memri.org/reports/new-Iran-supervised-missile-facility-in-syria

[5] Ibid

[6] Ibid

[7] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41074830

[8] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/28/benjamin-netanyahu-iran-building-missile-production-sites-syria-and-lebanon

[9] http://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/syria/1.807080

[10] http://www.washingtonpost.com

[11] http://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/syria/1.807080

[12] Ibid

[13] http://www.washingtonpost.com

[14] Ibid

[15] Ibid

[16] http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/israeli-pm-benjamin-netanyahu-israel-opposes-syria-cease-fire-brokered-by-us-and-russia/article/2628803

 

Russia-Syria Air Defense Systems Officially Linked

Figure 1: Russian S-400 Surface-to-Air Systems in Syria. Credit: Russia Today

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04SEPT2017 – Situation:

On 25AUG2017, Chief of Staff and Deputy Commander of Russian Aerospace Forces: Major General Sergey Meshcheryakov, announced during the Army-2017 International Military Technical Forum in Moscow that Russia had formally linked its air defense systems with that of Bashar Al Assad’s forces in Syria.[1] Previously, Russia had deployed several long range S-300 and S-400 Surface-to-Air Missile systems along with Pantsir-S1 short-to-medium range air defense systems to Syria following the downing of a Russian SU-24 Fencer by a Turkish F-16 fighter back in 2015.[2]  With this deployment, Russia was able to effectively defend its assets against any form of aerial attack. As well as, provide some operational air defense support to Al Assad’s aerial forces in Syria; and yet, still maintain a degree of separation between the two systems.[3] With any form of formal linkage between Moscow and Assad remaining purely speculation. However, with the August 25^th announcement, what was merely educated speculation, became fact. According to Meshcheryakov: “We have ensured the information and technical inter-linkage of the Russian and Syrian air reconnaissance systems. All information on the situation in the air comes from Syrian radar stations to the control points of the Russian force grouping.”[4] This new “unified integrated air defense system” sparks major concern for U.S. military operations within the region.[5] Operations that have already seen American multi-role combat aircraft shoot down two Iranian drones and a Syrian SU-22 ground attack aircraft that was harassing U.S. supported Syrian groups.[6] It remains unknown as to how extensively this formal announcement will impact U.S. military involvement; if at all.

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Sources:

[1] http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/13836/its-official-russia-and-syria-have-linked-their-air-defense-networks

[2] https://sputniknews.com/military/201701061049320597-s-400-s300-syria/

[3] Ibid

[4] Ibid

[5] http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/13836/its-official-russia-and-syria-have-linked-their-air-defense-networks

[6] Ibid