09OCT2017 – Situation:
Today, various news agencies reported that an agreement on the sale of Russia’s S-400 Surface-to-Air missile system to Saudi Arabia had been reached.[i] This announcement comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted Saudi Arabia’s King Salman last Thursday.[ii]
Maria Vorobyava, a Russian official who deals with military and technical cooperation, was cited by Russia Today (RT) as saying: “An agreement was reached with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to supply S-400 air defense systems, Kornet-EM anti-tank missiles, TOS-1A systems, automatic AGS-30 grenade launchers, AK-103 [export version of the AK-47] Kalashnikov assault rifles.”[iii]
Russia’s S-400 Surface-to-Air Missile System. Credit: Sputnik International.
The USD 3 billion deal that’s to be officiated at the end of October, will see Russia’s most advanced aerial denial weapon: The S-400, sold to Saudi Arabia.[iv] Which, according to Former NATO and European Commander, Adm (RET) James Stavridis, is a “step backwards in US foreign and defense policy.”[v]
A day after Saudi Arabia’s King met with Russia’s President, the Pentagon stated that a potential USD 15 billion deal to sell the THAAD Anti-Missile defense system to Saudi Arabia had been approved.[vi] A move clearly positioned as an attempt to sway the historically strong US ally away from Russia.
This deal between Saudi Arabia and Russia follows a similar agreement struck between Russia and another historic US ally: Turkey. Last month, Turkey made a deposit worth USD 2.5 billion to secure Russia’s S-400 systems.[vii] A move that only widened the gap between the US and Turkey.
The exact reasoning behind Saudi Arabia’s decision to purchase the S-400 system, as well as, various other weapon platforms from Russia, as opposed to the US, remains unknown. Especially since according to Frank Cevasco, former head of international affairs at the Pentagon and consultant to US and foreign companies on arms deals: “The Saudi’s will not be able to link the S-400 with Saudi’s current (US/Europe-sourced) infrastructure, nor will they be able to connect the S-400 with US systems.”[viii] Moreover, Cevasco notes that the impact of this deal goes beyond Saudi’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 systems: “The US has a large number of personnel, communications systems, military aircraft, ships, and vehicles in the region”. Thus, “military and intelligence operations have the potential of being affected.”[ix]
What does this mean?
The loss of weapons sales from two historically strong US allies (Saudi Arabia and Turkey), could likely indicate a greater geopolitical shift within the region. Currently, Russia is heavily involved within Syria’s Civil War. Working side by side with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. A conflict that until recently, had seen both Saudi Arabia[x] and Turkey[xi] supplying rebel forces fighting against the Russian backed Syrian regime. Thus, this shift could signify that the dominant influence within the region is no longer the US. Therefore, states that historically were perceived as strong US allies, now seek to align themselves with a stronger, more influential force; which in this case, would be Russia.
Only time will tell if what is being observed is simply states taking advantage of an opportunity to secure state-of-the-art technology. Or, a greater geopolitical shift of influence within the region.
Sources:
[i] http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-saudi-missiles/kremlin-says-s-400-missile-talks-with-saudi-arabia-on-track-idUSKBN1CE0ZY?ref=hvper.com
[ii] Ibid
[iii] https://www.rt.com/business/406116-russia-saudi-arabia-s400-delivery/
[iv] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-king-salman-visit-saudi-arabia-moscow-vladimir-putin-a7985161.html
[v] https://breakingdefense.com/2017/10/saudis-rock-us-alliance-say-theyll-buy-russias-top-plane-killer-s-400/
[vi] http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-saudi-missiles/kremlin-says-s-400-missile-talks-with-saudi-arabia-on-track-idUSKBN1CE0ZY?ref=hvper.com
[vii] http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-s-400-missile-defense-system-sold-to-us-allies-2017-10/#the-s-400-triumf-which-nato-calls-the-sa-21-growler-is-a-fourth-generation-long-range-missile-defense-system-that-russia-began-developing-in-1993-1
[viii] https://breakingdefense.com/2017/10/saudis-rock-us-alliance-say-theyll-buy-russias-top-plane-killer-s-400/
[ix] Ibid
[x] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-russia-diplomacy/saudi-king-heads-to-russia-with-oil-investment-and-syria-on-agenda-idUSKCN1C82AC
[xi] http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/10/erdogan-turkey-backing-fsa-rebels-idlib-push-171007134000451.html
The Zerah Project 